Loant that makes your visions a reality • 04.25.10
Marty and Jean knew they needed to work together to make their vision a reality. There was no question of working with outside partners. This was an internal partnership. But they needed to explore their compatibility. So, I asked them to complete a Partner Compatibility Analysis as a team-building exercise to help them begin thinking about how their relationship might develop. Marty balked. “Look, I know that I have to work with Jean, and I think we’ve identified the scheduling as one area we can work on. But I don’t want to waste my time with that compatibility thing. Can’t we just move on?” Jean replied: “Let’s just look at it, Marty. It might help.” So look at it we did. After a few minutes they started answering the questions out loud, so I suggested we just informally put down on paper what they were saying. Neither objected, and their compatibility analysis is what we came up with. Marty and Jean noticed they both answered no in areas that concerned their relationships. They vowed this was one area they were going to work on.
As we have pointed out for short-term spreads expected recovery value may be too high for short-term liabilities due to the assumptions of the model. Commercial implementations of the original structural model are more sophisticated, in order to produce more accurate spreads, default probabilities and recovery rates even for short time horizons. While in pure diffusion models with a barrier overnight debt is quasi-riskless, the introduction of a jump process captures the fact that default could be triggered by a sudden, unexpected event. Thus, the jump process is appropriate to model the possibility of the firm defaulting instantaneously due to the arrival of negative information with respect to, for example, litigation or fraud.